Undrafted free agents make up critical elements of any roster. Last year’s Super Bowl featured contributions from scrimmage and special teams from players like Noah Gray, Jake Brendel, Jack Cochrane, Cole Christiansen, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, George Odum and Jordan Mason. Odum is largely regarded as one of the best pure special teamers in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers fans well know the value of undrafted free agents. Austin Ekeler had been one of the best running backs in the league and they’ve seen contributions from Michael Davis, A.J. Finley and Stone Smartt.
They also acquired Jalen Guyton after the Dallas Cowboys signed him in undrafted free agency, first signing him to their practice squad and then promoting him. And though the Chargers didn’t sign them out of college, Donald Parham, Dean Marlowe, Blake Lynch and Keelan Doss all found themselves on the outside looking in after the selection ceremonies of their respective classes.
This year, the Chargers have signed a large class of undrafted free agents, adding 21 of them. Their initial class of 20 was the largest in the NFL, to which they added Chris Collins, an edge rusher from Minnesota.
Though the Ravens ended up surpassing the Chargers in UDFA class size, it’s nevertheless the case that Los Angeles has one of the largest undrafted groups. Even if it never produces a Tony Romo, it could end up providing important depth as the team navigates the Harbaugh era.
Using a combination of guaranteed salary and Consensus Big Board rank, I was able to construct a model to predict the approximate odds that a player makes the initial 53-man roster.
Though the model was built around predicting rookie Week 1 roster participation it anecdotally has done an excellent job predicting practice squad placement and eventual participation on NFL rosters years down the road.
Players at the top of the 2021-2023 lists who didn’t make the rosters included Carson Strong, Lonnie Phelps, Marvin Wilson, Mario Goodrich, Abram Smith, Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Kennedy Brooks and Kevin Austin Jr.
Ford-Wheaton was on his teams’ initial injured reserve list. Goodrich and Wilson eventually made a 53-man roster, either their original team’s or someone else’s. Phelps, Austin and Brooks made practice squads, with Phelps having signed a reserve/futures contract heading into this offseason.
So, using this model, what are the approximate odds of various Chargers undrafted free agents?
Chargers UDFAs 2024
| Rank | Player | Pos | Total Guaranteed | Consensus Rank | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | Pos | Total Guaranteed | Consensus Rank | Likelihood |
| 82 | Karsen Barnhart | G | $100,000.00 | 325 | 13.50% |
| 149 | Thomas Harper | S | $30,000.00 | 375 | 9.00% |
| 173 | Akeem Dent | S | $1,666.00 | 337 | 8.20% |
| 178 | Zamari Walton | CB | $40,000.00 | 484 | 8.10% |
| 181 | Willis Patrick | G | $5,833.00 | 368 | 7.90% |
| 198 | Zach Heins | TE | $1,666.00 | 384 | 7.40% |
| 221 | Tremon Morris-Bash | OLB | $1,666.00 | 435 | 6.70% |
| 242 | Bucky Williams | C | $ - | 490 | 6.00% |
| 258 | Tyler Smith | T | $5,000.00 | 544 | 5.60% |
| 263 | Jalyn Phillips | S | $2,166.00 | 569 | 5.20% |
| 287 | Leon Johnson | WR | $25,000.00 | 800 | 4.70% |
| 293 | Savion Jackson | OLB | $5,000.00 | 663 | 4.60% |
| 296 | Jaelen Gill | WR | $1,000.00 | 644 | 4.50% |
| 312 | Casey Bauman | QB | $10,000.00 | 800 | 3.90% |
| 342 | Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste | LB | $4,000.00 | 800 | 3.60% |
| 343 | Tyler McLellan | T | $3,333.00 | 800 | 3.50% |
| 361 | Luke Benson | TE | $2,000.00 | 800 | 3.50% |
| 367 | Robert Kennedy | CB | $1,666.00 | 800 | 3.50% |
| 372 | Jaylen Johnson | WR | $1,333.00 | 800 | 3.40% |
| 387 | Chris Collins | OLB | $ - | 800 | 3.40% |
| 387 | Micheal Mason | DT | $ - | 800 | 3.40% |
It should be noted that the Chargers already released tackle/guard Tyler Smith, which allowed them to make room for Bud Dupree. Though that was technically not a one-to-one transaction, that’s the net result through multiple transactions.
Karsen Barnhart has the highest projection of the undrafted group, and there’s a good chance that his likelihood of making the roster is even higher than the 13.5 percent predicted by the model. Barnhart has been taking second-team right-guard snaps in OTAs — unusual for a UDFA — and as a former Michigan player, has familiarity with Jim Harbaugh.
Barnhart not only has the highest guaranteed salary among undrafted free agents but was considered the best player of that group among third-party draft analysts, ranking 325th on the Consensus Big Board.
The Chargers invested in defensive backs in college free agency, adding three safeties and two cornerbacks. They also made sure to add a number of offensive linemen. In addition to Barnhart, they added Willis Patrick, Bucky Williams, Smith and Tyler McLellan.
There is roster space to absorb multiple players at both positions, so we could see more than Barnhart make it this year.
