2024 SBC Softball Season (2024)

Post: #341

SBC RPI through games of 4/24/2024

14Louisiana[.65809]
16Texas St.[.64594]
32South Alabama[.60430]
54Troy[.57134]
59James Madison[.57077]
83Coastal Carolina[.54703]
91ULM[.53565]
122Marshall[.50689]
146Ga. Southern[.49261]
148App State[.49155]
156Southern Miss.[.48800]
247Georgia St.[.42487]

The number in brackets after each school is their actual Adjusted RPI.

Post: #342

For Louisiana and Texas State fans, the series shown here are those involving the P-5 teams surrounding us in RPI. The outcome of these series will critically affect the possibility of either of us getting to host a regional. In any event we both have to take care of our own business first.

Tennessee @ Alabama x 3
Kansas @ Oklahoma State x 3
Florida State @ North Carolina x 3
Florida @ Georgia x 3
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse x 3
Auburn @ Ole Miss x 3
Arkansas @ LSU x 3

We want teams in bold print to win.

(This post was last modified: 04-25-2024 11:20 AM by Vobserver.)

Post: #343

(04-25-2024 10:16 AM)Vobserver Wrote: For Louisiana and Texas State fans, the series shown here are those involving the P-5 teams surrounding us in RPI. The outcome of these series will critically affect the possibility of either of us getting to host a regional. In any event we both have to take care of our own business first.

Tennessee @ Alabama x 3
Kansas @ Oklahoma State x 3
Florida State @ North Carolina x 3
Florida @ Georgia x 3
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse x 3
Auburn @ Ole Miss x 3
Arkansas @ LSU

We want teams in bold print to win.

Too lazy to research but I’m sure that some SBC teams have played a few of the teams that are not bolded. If that’s the case then wouldn’t the teams unbolded losing still have a slight indirect effect to UL and TXST. I get that the main focus is of course as many P5 teams 10-20 in current RPI standing losing.

Post: #344

As of today, assuming no stolen bids and no committee antics, the last team in will be RPI 42, currently Kansas.

Stolen bids are only possible in only 11 conferences; all the P-5, the AAC, SBC, MWC, CUSA, Patriot and MAC. It is extremely unlikely that any of the P-5 conferences other than the Big 10 will have a stolen bid. In the Big 10, if anyone other than Penn State, Northwestern or Indiana wins the conference, that team will have stolen a bid. The most likely stolen bids are the AAC, where only Charlotte is assured an at large if they don't win the Conference tournament; the Mountain West, where San Diego State is in the same position; CUSA with Liberty being the only team possible for an at large; the MAC [Miami] and the Patriot [Boston U]. The SBC is in the same position as the Big 10, the top 3 teams are pretty much locked in to at large bids if they don't win the conference.

For every bid stolen, the last RPI in should go up [lower number] by 1.

All that being said, we all know that the committee's criteria shift every year, supposedly to insure the most deserving teams get in, but actually so the the most deserving P-5 teams get in. That is why the Cajuns did not host last year with an RPI of 12, and why neither Louisiana nor Texas State is assured of hosting this year, and South Alabama should consider themselves on the bubble, in spite of being 10 RPI slots ahead of the current hypothetical cutoff number.

As for both SBC teams currently in the top 16 actually getting to host, it is my opinion that even if by some miracle those two end up at 11 and 12, only one will host. God forbid that two teams from a conference not annointed by the Media Gods at the Mouse should be so blessed.

Post: #345

(04-25-2024 10:35 AM)Johnnychimpo Wrote:

(04-25-2024 10:16 AM)Vobserver Wrote: For Louisiana and Texas State fans, the series shown here are those involving the P-5 teams surrounding us in RPI. The outcome of these series will critically affect the possibility of either of us getting to host a regional. In any event we both have to take care of our own business first.

Tennessee @ Alabama x 3
Kansas @ Oklahoma State x 3
Florida State @ North Carolina x 3
Florida @ Georgia x 3
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse x 3
Auburn @ Ole Miss x 3
Arkansas @ LSU

We want teams in bold print to win.

Too lazy to research but I’m sure that some SBC teams have played a few of the teams that are not bolded. If that’s the case then wouldn’t the teams unbolded losing still have a slight indirect effect to UL and TXST. I get that the main focus is of course as many P5 teams 10-20 in current RPI standing losing.

Your assumption of the focus is spot on.

I freely admit that I did this research based on Louisiana's best interest, but checking it out after your post, Texas State did not play any of the teams involved, and the only possible negative effect on either team's RPI would be in the Opponents Opponents section, where the effect would be miniscule. The only opponent of Louisiana in this group of games is LSU, so the LSU - Arkansas series affects the Cajuns more than it does the Bobcats.

By miniscule, I mean assuming 50 opponents who each had 50 opponents, one lost game would cause a drop of 1/2500 of 1/4 of RPI, or .0001. Plus, it is likely that both teams show up multiple times in different branches of the OOR, and at that point the math hurts my head, but the change in RPI should end up very small in either direction. lol

Post: #346

Post: #347

(04-25-2024 10:16 AM)Vobserver Wrote: For Louisiana and Texas State fans, the series shown here are those involving the P-5 teams surrounding us in RPI. The outcome of these series will critically affect the possibility of either of us getting to host a regional. In any event we both have to take care of our own business first.

Tennessee @ Alabama x 3
Kansas @ Oklahoma State x 3
Florida State @ North Carolina x 3
Florida @ Georgia x 3
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse x 3
Auburn @ Ole Miss x 3
Arkansas @ LSU x 3

We want teams in bold print to win.

Great info. Thanks

Post: #348

Post: #349

RPI Top 25 through games of 4/25/2024

1 Texas
2 Oklahoma
3 LSU
4 Georgia
5 Duke
6 Stanford
7 Tennessee
8 UCLA
9 Missouri
10 Texas A&M
11 Florida St.
12 Alabama
13 Louisiana
14 Oklahoma State
15 Arkansas
16 Texas St.
17 Virginia Tech
18 Auburn
19 Florida
20 California
21 Baylor
22 Clemson
23 Arizona
24 Washington
25 Mississippi St.

No Big 10 schools and no non Pampered-5 schools except our two.

(This post was last modified: Yesterday 11:08 AM by Vobserver.)

Post: #350

As of today, making the same assumptions as earlier about the committee's behavior and basing on RPI numbers from today:

SBC has 3 teams in: Louisiana, Texas State and South Alabama. If the Mouse Gods were just, which we all know they aren't, both Louisiana and Texas State would host.

The last team in is Michigan [43].

To enhance chances to host:

Louisiana needs Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Stanford, Cal, Baylor and Mississippi State to win. The Cajuns need aTm, FSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State and Arkansas to lose.

Texas State needs Texas, aTm, and Baylor to win, and FSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Auburn, Florida and Cal to lose.

Outside the Top 25, both want every team they have played to win.

(This post was last modified: Yesterday 11:54 AM by Vobserver.)

Post: #351

Non Pampered 5 Top 10 [by RPI]

1. Louisiana [SBC]
2. Texas State [SBC]
3. Charlotte [AAC]
4. South Alabama [SBC]
5. Liberty [CUSA]
6. San Diego State [MWC]
7. Miami [OH] [MAC]
8. Boston U. [Patriot]
9. Florida Atlantic [AAC]
10. McNeese [SLC]

15. Troy [SBC]
20. JMU [SBC]

Not too shabby: 3 Top 10, 5 Top 25 among non Pampered 5 Teams.

(This post was last modified: Yesterday 12:07 PM by Vobserver.)

Post: #352

(04-25-2024 10:16 AM)Vobserver Wrote: In any event we both have to take care of our own business first. win.

Hello, darkness. Somehow I knew we were old friends. 2025 couldn’t get here fast enough.

Post: #353

Post: #354

(Yesterday 08:52 PM)CatMom Wrote: Friday 4/26
App @ Marshall 7-2
JMU @ GS 4-3
GSU @ CCU 9-1 (5)
USA @ Troy 3-2 (10)
Louisiana @ ULM 5-4
TXST @ USM 9-3 (terrible)

what happened to the 3 likely Regional teams? very unexpected results.

Post: #355

Post: #356

(Yesterday 11:47 PM)balanced_view Wrote:

(Yesterday 08:52 PM)CatMom Wrote: Friday 4/26
App @ Marshall 7-2
JMU @ GS 4-3
GSU @ CCU 9-1 (5)
USA @ Troy 3-2 (10)
Louisiana @ ULM 5-4
TXST @ USM 9-3 (terrible)

what happened to the 3 likely Regional teams? very unexpected results.

Louisiana was flat, coming off two big midweek wins. Still found a way to win.